Financial assumptions that youngster should avoid.

Hi Readers,

This post is dedicated to younger generation, mostly to freshers who have just graduated and have started working. It is at this crucial phase, that most of the middle class youngster actually take part in finance. Finance is normally managed by the parents till the child starts working.

When the youngster starts working, he/she opens up an account. Since, youngster are more attracted to modern technology and gadgets, they take up credit cards, new and costly handset, a new bike, before they even sit back and think about money that they earn.They spend hefty sum on handbags, mobile phones, bikes even without realizing how big the hole has been made on their own wallet.

Youngster have several excuses such as, have no time, it is complex, no idea where to begin and how.

Firstly, to understand and manage personal finance, one has to consider self as an asset. What is an asset? Asset is something that pays you, earns income. So, you are inevitably an asset which generates income for self.

The second things is If you save and invest part of your income, then that will pay you more. If you spend more than your actual income, you would need an alternate source to fill in the gap.

So, better late than never, start financial management and take this seriously. Once, you start learning about it, this will become easier. This can help you build a debt free life. When to take debt and how to pay back, how to assess how much to invest and spending wisely would come to you naturally in a couple of years.

The point, which is important in this whole process, is to get started and to take it seriously.

Secondly, most youngster have a casual approach to life, like just enjoy. Go on holidays, get all things that you like without a proper plan on place. Today, the job market is not the same that used to be 70's and 80's. So, you have to make cautious decision to have a backup in case of any disaster like loosing a job. You to evaluate the risk, keep money aside for it before jumping into fun.

Living a frugal life is not easy for youngster these days, everyone wants to look cool over net. But, to have this life you have certain risk , just don't keep the risk under pillow. Take this into account and build yourself adequately to have a longer sustainability in disaster. 

Made in India

Why we Indian's do not like "Made in India" tag the way we like "Made in xyz" for all the product we purchase? During British Raj, India was ruled by Britishers, but all the products were India made and India was one of the strongest country economically. Today, though we are Independent but we are so much fond of Made in other country tag that actually our economy is at mercy of Foreign Direct Investment.

Be it something to eat, wear or use, we want everything made in other countries. Who wants to party in local dabba's, idli dosha joints, the idea is so boring that such party never happens. When its party at Pizza hut, Subway, McD or Dominos this is a hit.. Why such a mentality for our products? 

I still remember the time in 1980's when everwhere it was Black and white TV from Konark. Today, this company has vanished into thin air. We have Samsung, Sony, LG etc taking over it. No doubt these foreign brands are ruling over Indian market, however, their product else where in the world costs less compared to India. People who visit other countries get back home, electronic gadgets be it Camera, Laptop, LCD. But, why is it that same product in India cost so high compared to else where in the world? 

All this is because of the composite tax that Indian government imposes on these products. How is it going to benefit India, when FDI is suppose to provide us Global products at higher cost and at the stake of local manufacturers? 

I feel really sad to see the tags "Made in XYZ" on simple things like clothes, undergarments, plastic utensils etc... Why our country cannot manufacture something of same quality and look? We are still the third largest economy in Asia, but we are importing from our neighbours CHINA and Srilanka. How are we going to outperform? Will there be a day, when we can proudly say and boast around with "MADE IN INDIA" tag ???

A thought on Food security Bill

As we all know the Food security bill we can passed in Lok Sabha and will be produced before Rajya Sabha tomorrow. Is this something that we can afford right now. India needs to strengthen its economic situation by reducing the current account deficit. When India is under a large debt how can she afford to distribute food at subsidized rate.

Now, lets see the condition of India. According to 2013 statics BPL population has reduced to 22% of population. Indian government provides Rice, wheat, sugar and kerosene at subsidized rate to this 22% of population. The most eye catching being Rice @ Re 1/- per KG. Indian government also purchases a minimum amount of food grain produced from the farmers directly. So, where lies the problem and why this Food security bill is a necessity.

As per statics, India needs to improve sanitation and fight against malnutrition. However, our government has come up with another food security bill that would give subsidized food for 67% of population.

Here, is some view on the actual condition of people at remote village. The scheduled tribe or tribal population is the poorest, they need a socio- economic growth all together. In general, India needs to improve the sanitation and malnutrition problem. However, the corruption in India which has spread to this grass-root level also affects the actual statics of BPL. People in remote village get their ration card if they have connection with politician, in-spite of their overall income. Yes, it covers the actual needy but there are people who are covered even if its not a need.

By passing this food security bill, can government improve the present situation? Its a No. Why? Providing cereals only at subsidized rate will not improve Malnutrition, because pulses is required to fight malnutrition. The second reason being, government is buying these cereal from farmers, it is transporting these food grain to cold storage's located 100's km away from the purchasing place. At present situation, media reports food wastage every other day at these storage's. So, how can government be able to distribute food efficiently to a larger mass without improving and efficiently functioning these storage's. It would just end up purchasing the grain from same farmer and providing him the same produce at a cheaper rate. This will be total loss for India.

Where India needs to focus is at the efficient distribution and maintenance of  these cold storage's. Once, it improves this condition only then it can increase the capacity. Only by increasing capacity all of sudden will not help India, instead this would increase the wastage to a larger amount. What about sanitation, non- of our political leaders have anything to say about it? Why so?

This could be because if government announces setting up free toilets in villages, it will not be able to grab more attention, than when it will announce distributing cereal @ Re 1/- for a larger mass. For the villagers, the poor and illiterate, sanitation is obviously not something they are attracted to, but food is a need and attraction. They are used to the poor sanitation and could not easily understand the need of it.

Yes, we educated mass understand the vote bank politics, and know such bills will be beneficial for all the contesting parties in election, so this bill will never be opposed. But, how many of this educated mass actually vote. Many of us have migrated from our native to another state for employment or for higher education, on the election day, we have voter id's of our native place as per residential proof and this actually hinder's us in giving vote. And  the remaining educated mass who do not vote because, we have no faith on any government parties. Yes, as Indian's we should never miss this opportunity and vote, but there most be some easier option to do this just like registering for PAN card and using it any where in India. True, setting up a system that could identify people at all places would be difficult but this is not impossible.

If this could be possible to vote on internet ,many more educated mass who understand the policies and rules would be able to participate efficiently. But, yes at the present scenario, this food security bill will no doubt attract the poor to vote for the party. I wish our government could take up more steps to actually stabilize economy than provide subsidized food.

Poverty Politics

Have you marked the western tourist, taking the pictures of beggars and urchins? Internet is flooded with pictures of India that has only pictures of beggars, tribal and poor. Till date, when western country papers write a story about Indian society or quality of life, invariably,the article will have pictures of beggars and unhygienic places. As per the report by planning commission we have made remarkable jump from 2005
to 2012 by reducing below poverty line population from 37.2% to 21.9%.

The planning commission released for a change, some numbers to cheer. There are lesser number of Indian's living below poverty line than were in 2005.According to the commission, in 2012 21.9% or 269.3 million live under poverty line. This figure is much lower compared to 407.1 in 2005 or 37.2%.In 1994, 45.3% lived below poverty line. No doubt we have come a long way since 1994 and the jump from 2005 to 2012 is remarkable.

The credit goes to economic growth of India. the Indian economy during last eight years has shown a growth of over 9%. At the same time, rural prosperity has increased. Agricultural wages have increased. During the 11th Plan period(2007-12) agricultural wages have raised much faster at 6.8%.

All this was possible due to growth. In Bihar growth in agriculture and money coming from migrant workers helped people to cross over the BPL mark. Similarly, in Odisha mining and migrant money helped. However, this had little or no effect in Chhatishgarh. The state could only reduce poverty by 9.47% in-spite of showing 8.69% GDP growth. So, if growth could reduce poverty why it did not have any effect in Chhatishgarh, where more 40% population is still below poverty line which is double the national average.

We have to achieve growth by improving education system, healthcare and food distribution and by providing more employment opportunity. Growth will not be able to reduce poverty after a certain point if all these things are not taken into account.

To add to this, our politicians made another remarkable statement stating that one can have full meal at RS12/- and RS5/-. How is this possible I do not see rice in near by grocery shop below RS40/- per Kg. The Rupee mark of RS27/- in rural area and Rs33/- in urban as the poverty line mark needs to be recalculated.

Indian Investor would love to get these companies listed and have in portfolio

Today the Bombay Stock Exchange has more than 5000 stocks listed in it, however the investor still lingers for more. There are some very good companies with sound corporate governance, sound year- on -year growth and profitability which are still not listed in any of the major stock exchanges. Even though we have more than 5000 different stocks listed, investors look for few as many companies fall into the category where    they have corporate governance issues and it becomes risky to have them in portfolio for a long time.

The long term investors which we all should actually be thus tends to wish to have other companies which are not listed. Some of them are, IT major like IBM, Accenture, CTS , dairy major AMUL, insurance major LIC, FMCG major PARLE, Airport Authority of India(AAI), Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL)  and media major Yashraj films. We have companies in every sector that is still not listed in NSE and BSE.

May be one day these companies would get listed into stock exchange via IPO, but may be the value at which these IPO will open would be beyond our reach.

Make money online

Below are few options to earn money online, you just need a computer with internet connectivity. 

1- Trade Forex/Commodity/Equity :- Trading has become easier with the invent of internet and its ability to transfer sensitive information in real time.

Note :- Need money to start up. 

            Need to have knowledge of financial market.

            Need demat account with any firm to start with.

            Need to incur brokerage for your transaction.

2- Online Survey :-  Login to any online free survey and get paid for your views. This is not very high income yielding option. 

Note :- Need to check if it actually generates money.

Do not register for something that demands money before actually paying you.

3- Affiliate marketing :- This is a great way to make money for promoting someone else’s products or services without having to carry any inventory. Affiliate advertisements are usually incorporated into your website/blog/page via linked articles (great when your content is strong and compelling, but must be done carefully to avoid looking spamy), product-placement videos (great if you’re funny or have performance talent), or, less and less commonly, banner ads (pretty ineffective, as most people avoid these like the plague)

4- Sell Apps :-  In a multimillion-person marketplace, $1 or 2 per sale can go a long way. If you have a great concept but no programming know-how, it might even be worth it to hire a programmer. Just make sure you shop around for similar ideas, find ways to one-up your competition, and comply with the rules of the company on whose devices you’d sell the apps.

5- Freelancer web-designer - Create a website showcasing your portfolio and build a client list by finding work in the online classifieds. Though it takes more time to get established doing business this way, you can set your own prices and won’t have to share your profits with the graphic design house.

6- Online Contest :- You won’t get paid unless your entry wins, search for a wide range of free contests in a field where you’re already have a lot of possible entries (ex. photos, logo-making, background design) and submit your work to as many places as will have you. It might take a day to get through all of them, but even a few small successes (or, preferably, a great big one) will make up for it. The experience might even steer you in a new creative direction.

7-  Sell anything online :- Selling online is especially useful if you have a niche item that can’t attract enough business to survive in a physical location, but of course online stores for everyday items aren't going anywhere, either. If you aren't particularly web-savvy or can be bothered to maintain a website, you can set up shop on a site like eBay or CafePress (for a fee). Otherwise, you can hire someone to design a website for you or even make your own. You can sell books, videos, songs, crafts and DIY products.

Technology and virtual ways to earn ....

For 21st century kids, imagining a life without mobile, computers would be quite difficult. But, for the people born in early 70's and 80's, we have seen the life without TV, phone, computers and now we have mastered these new gadgets to help us improve our day-to-day life.

Banking has become so very easy with Internet and mobile banking. We now move out of house and still be touch with family over phone and Internet everyday that does not create any distance with our loved ones. This has helped us to take up higher studies and career in any part of this world.

There are many options, that has opened up due to this Internet age that enables anyone to sit at any place and work. It has given people in IT industry  to work from home options and also enabled house-wife's to do freelancer jobs. Be it the data entry jobs, quiz and contest or survey online has helped anyone with simple knowledge of computers to earn a bit for themselves.

People with knowledge of For ex, commodity or equity market can do their job by just sitting in front of computer screen.  Earlier people used to gather at the stock exchange fill up long forms to get a portion of scrip allotted to them. The benefits of Internet is numerous indeed. 

People engaged in stock exchange have benefited from the smart phone apps and mobile trading facility that do not even require them to switch on their PC or laptop. The biggest advantage here is you can work full time, part time or be an intelligent investor and no-body knows until you yourself tell someone. You can be at home take care of family and no-body knows your ability of making money . 

Opportunity and money is flying, you just need knowledge of computers. If you have knowledge of animation, programming and coding ability then you might design good gaming or useful apps that can be downloaded to mobile device and you earn by just uploading the stuff in Internet. If you can pull people to view your blog you can earn through AdSense. Options are numerous and choice is yours.

Yes, rise in technology comes both way, it can be used to improve our life and it can be used to cheat and fraud. Choice lies within people. Some people use their skill set to build good things and some use their skill set to snatch what they want by cheating and fraud. With the increasing amount of  technology use in every sphere this has increased the chances of getting cheated. Technology has also rapidly grown to stop such criminal activities and help prevent cheating and fraud. 

There are various options and various choices that  can confuse anyone with what to choose... Isn't it ???

Debate on Amway CEO arrest and direct selling business in India

Hi Readers,

The arrest of Amway India CEO along with two top executives of the company at Kozhikode, Kerala has brought up the debate of having these direct selling business. Amway India has had a good foot base in India since 1990's. Direct selling business means selling of goods away from a fixed retail location. This is much same as selling products through sale's representative who demonstrate the product to their consumer at their home or office, but they them self do not have a retail outlet.

Amway India works in MLM or Pyramid structure, where as the base grows and performs the higher up get paid. This is not legal as per Indian law and now after the arrest of Amway India CEO William Pinckney, many have condemned the act of Police authority as these direct selling business employ more than 60 lakh employees as its business owner and its turn over is more than 6000 crores and 70% of this is being operated by women.

Other well known company in this model are Oriflame India, Avon India and Tupperware, Modicare etc.

Well, now the business model has changed and the business owners grow their business by adding more people into this business. They conduct workshop and meetings to demonstrate their products and sell to people via representative. Some people in such schemes perform well and grow while some loose their principle amount.

The business model is not very clear and police department has said while investigating, prize scheme, ponzi scheme and direct selling business they do not find any clear demarcation. It is true, understanding MLM and direct selling business model is quiet complex and it is much similar to pyramid and other  scheme where people have lost their hard earned money to company which shuts after accumulating huge sum from general mass.

India needs to setup up law that would enable the general public to distinguish between genuine and ponzi fraudulent company that sponsors such business model.The Indian Direct Selling Association (IDSA http://www.idsa.co.in/ ) should enforce strict rules that would identify and distinguish the business model that is appropriate and should take action to make public aware of the business model that is fraudulent.  This would ensure Public specially the middle class hard working people are not reaped up off their hard earned money.

Is entering equity market safer ????

"Is entering equity market safer in this volatile market?" This is a tough question that is dogging in every small and retail investor in Indian market. Many feel under the current circumstances markets are not a good idea any more.

One decade ego, investors used to invest and forget about the scrip for many years, but now the term " long term" definition has changed from 5 yrs and above to 12-15 months in average. There is so much uncertainty and volatility that it is difficult to predict the direction of market. 

When there is so much confusion, one should calm down and keep in mind one's own objective in mind. If the objective is to trade well, one must be willing to take risk vs uncertainty and must be willing to take the consequences. But, if one is an investor, which ideally one should be, then picking up fundamentally strong stocks is the perfect thing to do.

Fundamentals never go out of fashion. New theories to assess market could come up. But, the way we analyze one scrip would remain the same. Fundamentals means, asset quality, healthy earning, management, past track record, debt undertaken, cash balance and above all reputation.And once fundamentals are in place, five year time span would be the best long term time measure. 

Staying out of financial market in a view of uncertainty is not going to edge against inflation. The chances of loosing money would remain 20% and gaining 80%. So, one should stop worrying about 20% loss when one has potential to gain 80%. The average would still be better than not loosing or gaining anything. Yes, one should diversify one's total asset. For a young investor with ample time to invest and higher risk taking ability, one should not fear to enter equity market.    

Cool Cool Summer stocks

The Summer heat is here and we are already in mid of intense summer heat. The month of May is the most intense summer and heat waves blows across India. Silk clothes are tucked deep into the wardrobe and the light pastel and white cottons are in. Deep fried foods are out and light meals with salads, ice-cream and soft drinks are in. Sunscreen, Sun glasses and umbrella are most to protect from blistering heat.

Just as we change our general lifestyle, food and clothes to adapt to the changing climate, it is good to have a re-look at our stocks. Like summer clothes there should be stocks to beat the summer heat. Like monsoon is the season to look at agricultural stocks and pesticides and winter is the season to have everything keeping in mind the festive season. There most be something that is summer season specific. Lets now explore this criterion.

This buying is based on logic. Now, just look out and think, what would you reach out to in this summer. those which you buy and consume for summer is definitely the stock for summer.

Naturally, the biggest winner in summer would be home appliance companies - specifically AC, cooler and fans. Companies like Voltas, Bajaj electricals, Videocon, Symphony, Godrej would surge. Though, now the China made cheaper varieties are giving hard competition to these companies.

Now, again the sale of these home appliances depend on the power cut. In general most part of India would have to face regular power cut and without power there is no use of any of these. Hence, alternative power source like gensets and inverters would also see a surge in volume. Companies like Kirloskar power engine, Greeve cottons, Cummins, Mahindra Poweroll and Eicher would rule this place. However, China products also give stiff competition to these. Refrigetors would also have uptake in this summer.

Next lets look at the fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) sector. To beat the heat the consumption of soaps, deodorants, perfume, shampoos, talcum powder and skin care products would increase.Already, FMCG has seen a good growth due to price rise of vegetables and edibles. The rulers like HUL , ITC would see a good uptake in this summer. This is a peak season for ice-cream makers, and Vadilal industries and HUL rule's this place. Non of the aerated drinks companies are listed in stock exchange, so next lets look at the fruit juices. Only Dabur has Real fruit juice and this would also see a good uptake.

To meet the heat, people would like to spend more time in malls and movies. So, this could be good season for Future group, PVR and INOX. People would also like to take up holidays as this is school holiday season. So, the companies like Cox & Kings, Thomas cook would do good business. Travel companies and mid range hotel companies would also do brisk business. 

Akshya Tritiya & Gold Rush

Media has hyped all the small and insignificant festival like Akshya Tritiya, that we never celebrated in our childhood. Today, like Mother's day and Father's day, Akshya Tritiya has gained a lot of public attention. Even the daily soaps in TV are advertising Akshya Tritiya as though this in an Indian National holiday where newly purchased gold is required to be used in Hindu ritual ceremony.

No doubt, Akshya Tritiya has got religious significance. This is the day, when according to Hindu mythology every moment is considered auspicious and hence, any venture that is started on this day will be fruitful. This day does not require any Muhurat calculation before starting anything new. This day the Sun and moon are at their brightest and this happens only once in a year. This is the birthday of Lord Parshurama one of the Avtar's of  Lord Vishnu. And also this is the day when Lord Sri Krishna's childhood friend Sudama visited Mathura, and without him uttering anything for his poverty, Lord Sri Krishna understood his problem and blessed him and his family wealth and prosperity. That is the day depicts- Akshya means eternal blessings, one which will never perish.

In our childhood days, this day was considered the best to conduct marriage, thread ceremony etc. However, in this new age of Media and consumerism, the goldsmith and jewelers have hit an excellent marketing trick and have hyped this as the day, when gold purchase is a most. Just like various other days which are gimmick of greeting card companies, Akshya Tritiya has become marketing gimmick of gold shops across India.

This is an auspicious day, and is important to make a new beginning, that is why you should not purchase gold this day. In this age when lot of financial assets are readily available like stocks, MF's, bonds, FD's and PPF's etc why you need to stick to gold.

We Indian's are quite sentimental towards this yellow metal and consider this as the best asset. The price of yellow metal does not allow to wear these ornaments as this adds to unnecessary attraction in public. So, you end up purchasing the ornaments and keeping it in safe either in bank locker or in home locker.

Yes, it is true that in last decade gold has had a good price run up. But, is it really worth. We think investing in Gold our asset value is growing, but compared to other asset classes, gold has not had any good returns. This certainly beats the inflation in US but not in India where inflation is so steep.

Instead, we should consider other asset classes and divert our hard earned money that could give a much better result in long term. If the money invested in fundamentally sound stocks, surely the return would be much better.

Do not fall for the gimmick and if you must purchase then identify some fundamentally strong stocks that could give you much better margin over yellow metal. Stocks also give you regular dividend yield and bonus. However, the yellow metal neither grows nor gives any interim return. It is true if you sell gold you can get good value, but too much gold attracts wealth tax . In general we all have soft corner for our family gold and would never think of selling them until we reach a state where nothing else works. Before, investing in gold, think if you could definitely sell them if you are considering this as asset. 

FDI on Retail ???

Hi Readers,

This is yet another much debated topic in India. After the government was able to pass the FDI on retail sector, almost all the retail stocks gained approx 40% as one of the retail mid-cap stock rallied on the day the bill was passed on both house of parliament.

However, when I sit back and think of this decision, many if and buts arise in my mind. The news of Walmart bribing, and Walmart itself being one of the major contributor in this sector, has made me think where Indian Industry would move. Walmart has gained bad reputation from the way they dealt in Mexico. Moreover, Walmart is the way in which Chinese goods can enter India easily and in much cheaper price compared to India's own production. This is certainly going to pose a good competition to India.

Only, money from FDI is not going to resolve issues in India. India need to resolve the issues inside the country, and not just make attempts to bring more money inflow. The difference between rich and poor is aggregating. India already needs to fight against corruption and control it, if again Walmart gets involved in malpractices in India, it is going to add to the standing problems.

All economist are bullish with government taking up reform majors. I am also hoping, the FDI in retail proves a boon and it actually makes India a better country economy wise.

Can the Government Break Gold Fever?

A gold duty hike is in the works, but it may not have enough of an effect on the current account deficit

Last week, the finance minister spoke out about the problem of gold imports. Some 12 per cent of India’s import bill is on account of gold. With the current account deficit of the country worsening, the government’s thoughts are tending towards the huge drain that gold imports are on the Forex reserves. The minister said that had gold imports been half of what they were, the Forex reserves would have been 10 billion dollars higher. He indicated that measures to make gold import costlier—presumably, higher import duty—were in the works.

There was a range of reactions to his statement, with some saying that this approach was right while others saying that it was wrong. Meanwhile, there were those who readied themselves for some market action on the expectation that if a duty hike looked imminent, then there would actually be a flood of demand, which would drive up prices as well as drive up imports! Perhaps the FM should not have shown his hand so early in the game—if he wants to hike duties he should just go ahead and do it. In fact, by this logic, the best way to depress imports could be to hike duties and then say that they will be brought down at some point. This would create the expectation of an imminent fall in prices. Unfortunately, this would be just a one-time trick.

As for whether such a duty hike is desirable or not, the issue is a complicated one. From my perspective, which is that of personal finance and investment rather than one worrying about the country’s current account, it would be great if Indians would move away from using gold as a means of savings. As a lot of people have been pointing out for long, gold is an unproductive asset. Unlike stocks or bonds, it’s a type of asset whose value depends on nothing but a shared belief that that value will rise and keep rising.

However, this apparently irrational gold boom has gone on long enough for it to shake the faith of a lot of people in the basic uselessness of gold. Buying gold is practically hardwired into the Indian investment psyche and it will take a lot to shift that. A higher import duty will certainly not be enough to do so. At best a higher duty would help the government’s other deficit, the fiscal one, by bringing in some more revenue. Provided, of course, the duty is not so high that imports will shift to smuggling.

Is there any possible way in which the government could reduce the appetite for gold? Perhaps it could, but only by executing a full throwback to the 70's. It would have to impose very high customs duties or perhaps ban the import of gold altogether. Then, it would have to focus a great deal of effort on combating the inevitable smuggling operations that would start flourishing. It would also be necessary to distinguish between gold that was legally owned before the ban from what was smuggled later. To do this, there would have to be some way of registering legal gold so that illegal gold can be chased down. Basically, this adds up to a reduction ad absurd argument against the government being able to do anything to curb gold imports and consumption.

One of the cultural curiosities of gold consumption in India is that in many types of usages, it is tied to a specific quantity of gold, rather than its value. The kind of family that would have bought 50 grams for a wedding a decade ago still aspires to the same quantity. While the government and economists are aghast at the increased value of gold imports, the increase in quantity is much less.

The only way a change will come is if there are other investment channels that become practical alternatives to gold. Even then, it will happen slowly and will only happen to a degree. Of course, its possible that such a change is already on its way. In all the alarm about gold imports’ impact on the current account deficit, the decline in gold imports is not getting enough attention. Going by the trend so far, this year, gold imports will probably be at least 30 to 35 per cent less than the previous year. This is actually a huge decline. I wouldn't bet on it yet, but a slow abating of gold fever may be on its way.